Is Youtube Success Just Luck?

PositivelyBrainwashed said:
That's a really big flip in ratio. Do you feel like you're massive growth was mostly luck? Cuz 90% luck does not sound very encouraging :(
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You know the old saying "The best laid schemes o' mice an' men..."

I say it is mostly luck now, because you can't predict what will be successful and what will not. You can work equally hard and smart on every video with perfect seo, and 100 videos later, even 200 or 300 videos, you are still floating and nothing has taken off. Sure you can get 1000/2000 views/video but in the grand scheme of Yt that's not much. You can target kws and other channels and verticals and still nothing can happen.

I say this as I have been researching starting a second channel. I've looked through perhaps 400-500 small channels now, many started over a year, some a few months, and nothing happens in the vast majority of them. It's bloody depressing.

It is only through "luck" or some magical combination of parameters or conditions in the Yt algo that they pick and place just 1 video on a big channel in suggested, and if it passes the test, it runs there for a few days. It was by luck, not any specific design, that one of our first Thomas videos in the park got on one of RyanToysReview videos and that was our first major suggested spot and that drove a lot of traffic, but it was only a day. And it was luck as well a week or two later our first Hello kitty giant egg got on a ToysAndMe top video, after which our channel began to grow consistently.

So all the work for 6 months prior to those suggested spots, it would have gone to waste, as I was so close to quitting, because nothing was happening. It's very discouraging, expensive, and time consuming. I could not have continued, the visa card was maxed out, the bills were piling up, and my wife's salary was not enough to support the family. Just the sheer luck of triggering the right parameters (of which we know very little) and getting on suggested saved us.

I know some people on here say 'work hard and it will happen', but I honestly have to say, 'not necessarily'. If it happens or not is mostly out of your control. Sure you can stack the odds in your favor, just like buying more tickets and covering all the numbers in lotto, but the numbers drawn, and channels picked for growth, are just luck.
 
Sometimes it's just plain luck. That kid that randomly said 'I like turtles' never expected to become a meme. Laina never expected her cover song to blow up and make a whole deal out of her Overly Attached Girlfriend persona. Markimoo probably never thought he'd get that much attention when he first played FNAF. Psy's song was meant for his Korean fans and for whatever reason, us crazy Americans ate it up and turned into a viral sensation. Hell, I might film someone slipping on a banana peel and be surprised it goes viral.
 
Xynudu said:
No, it's not about luck.

It's about putting up something interesting that people want to watch.
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Ok fair enough, but there's a huge difference between 100 people watching it (which ever channel can achieve easily), or 10,000,000 watching it (which very few channels can achieve).
What determines if 10M watch it?
==> Mostly Luck!
 
I feel that success on YouTube is an amalgamation of many factors. I am in the process of figuring out stuff myself, but have come to realise that people do value content. Yes, getting noticed is a tricky thing, but 'sharing extensively' is the word. Share with family and friends, bring it up in a conversation with other people. If you are a small youtuber making videos for a niche, consistency and patience can come a long way. All the best!
 
For me I believe luck accounts to around 90% and my 'hard' work for the other 10% for the views I get.
 
I know a few people with that luck. In the long run, your best bet is to depend on the work ethic and strategy.
 
PositivelyBrainwashed said:
Youtube success is more like Poker. There's definitely an element of luck involved but there's an even bigger element of skills as well. There's a lot of factors like the niche you're in, the quality of your videos, your promoting skills, understanding SEO, how consistent you are, how good you're at predicting trends and so on.
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^ This.

A winning hand dealt even to a bad player can bring them some money - but a good player can make the most of even the worst hands. The same is true of YouTube: You can get lucky and have a massive boost to your success without even trying - but you can also make your own success through hard work.

A shoutout from a popular YouTuber, a sudden algorithm change that better favours some of your videos, or other such events can propel a small channel to success practically overnight, but.. A basic understanding of SEO, good videos with high audience retention times, and frequent video releases == you will get lots of new views and subscribers.
 
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