How accurate are the Social Blade predictions?

natnip

natnip

You may think you want my accent. You really don't
If I look at the time prediction it tells me that I will have hit my subscriber goal for the end of the year within a month and a half, but I'm not sure how accurate that is, or what it takes into account to make these predictions.

If there is a thread explaining this in detail, could someone link me to it, or if not, could someone explain it please?

Thank you!
 
What I have concluded from socialblade is that it makes a linear prediction based on your latest increases in subs. The longer you have been using socialblade the more data it can take into account.

EDIT: so basically a linear trendline through your past subcounts.
 
Socialblade takes in account only the data from the last month for its predictions. If there is significant change in these data for the next few months the prediction will be completely inaccurate.
 
In my opinion it isn't accurate whatsoever things can change. Either the boost you had makes Social Blade boost the expectations of growth or they say you wont grow at all yet you start gainng the flow of more subs daily than they predicted. Just consider it as a medium
 
Social Blade's future predictions are not all that hard to understand. It is all linear. "It took you 6 months to get 50 subs? So we think it will take 6 months more to get 100." It doesn't take into account that you could go exponential and actually end up with way more. When I first started my channel back up, it said that I might hit 40 subs in 5 years. Well after getting 5 new subs since the beginning of the month, it think I will hit 150 in that time. It just averaged out the past 6 months and looked at that growth rate. If it see a growth rate of 5 per month for me then it will say I should have 30-35 subs by the end of the year. So it really just takes the latest trend of your channel and maps you out linearly.
So for you, it says that you are gaining 13 subs a month. If you continue to gain 13 a month, then you will hit 100 sometime in late February or early March but lets say you were to start generating traction next month and got 20 a month, well you could hit that milestone in early January. It obviously can't see that you are going to upload more videos and gain more so it cannot trend that but if you continue to upload more quality videos, then you will gain more and it will start to reflect that.

Personal Tip: Only look at Social Blade like every 2 weeks or so. That way you can get a more realistic approach. I have an excel spreadsheet with my subs that I update every 2 weeks so I can personally model myself out. I can see the trends for my channel and determine that I will hit 100 around April if I continue to put out videos. The only thing that I don't know is how a new series will do for me so I can't model that out until 2 weeks after it hits.
 
They have so much data that it's mind boggling they only take your own channel into account and in a linear way when everyone knows that growth is definitely not linear on YT! I think it would make more sense if they based it on the growth of all channels in the same category with similar size and upload frequency. That would be interesting to see. :bookworm2:
 
brantman19 said:
Social Blade's future predictions are not all that hard to understand. It is all linear. "It took you 6 months to get 50 subs? So we think it will take 6 months more to get 100." It doesn't take into account that you could go exponential and actually end up with way more. When I first started my channel back up, it said that I might hit 40 subs in 5 years. Well after getting 5 new subs since the beginning of the month, it think I will hit 150 in that time. It just averaged out the past 6 months and looked at that growth rate. If it see a growth rate of 5 per month for me then it will say I should have 30-35 subs by the end of the year. So it really just takes the latest trend of your channel and maps you out linearly.
So for you, it says that you are gaining 13 subs a month. If you continue to gain 13 a month, then you will hit 100 sometime in late February or early March but lets say you were to start generating traction next month and got 20 a month, well you could hit that milestone in early January. It obviously can't see that you are going to upload more videos and gain more so it cannot trend that but if you continue to upload more quality videos, then you will gain more and it will start to reflect that.

Personal Tip: Only look at Social Blade like every 2 weeks or so. That way you can get a more realistic approach. I have an excel spreadsheet with my subs that I update every 2 weeks so I can personally model myself out. I can see the trends for my channel and determine that I will hit 100 around April if I continue to put out videos. The only thing that I don't know is how a new series will do for me so I can't model that out until 2 weeks after it hits.
Click to expand...
I also use my own spreadsheet. That way you can ignore sudden jumps in subs etc and make a more realistic prediction.[DOUBLEPOST=1443017907,1443017817][/DOUBLEPOST]
SabrinaKom said:
They have so much data that it's mind boggling they only take your own channel into account and in a linear way when everyone knows that growth is definitely not linear on YT! I think it would make more sense if they based it on the growth of all channels in the same category with similar size and upload frequency. That would be interesting to see. :bookworm2:
Click to expand...
Lol, I even have a spreadsheet for that ^^ for pet channels that is. Not much of a trend to see though. It depends on how much you push your videos to websites, activity on social media and a bunch of other things you can't see on youtube alone...[DOUBLEPOST=1443018740][/DOUBLEPOST]This is the trend I found for petchannels (horizontal=days, vertical=subs logaritmic):
upload_2015-9-23_16-31-47.png
 
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